Girding for El Nino For some, 'It's almost reached the level of panic'

Weather system's '83 visit caused billions in damage

Richard Price

09/22/1997

USA Today

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SAN FRANCISCO -- The O'Tooles figure they've done everything they can.

They sealed off the garage of their beachfront home in Malibu, and fortified it

with sandbags.

They arranged for the emergency evacuation of possessions and pets.

They even threw an "El Nino preparedness party" for their neighborhood,

swapping ideas and phone numbers over cocktails. "We thought it was important

to get to know each other," said Erin O'Toole, 26. "People around here are

nervous."

They have good reason to be. Empty lots dot their street where homes once

stood. In 1983 -- the last time a major El Nino event disrupted global weather

and devastated this coast with unrelenting storms -- those houses were crushed

by waves and walls of mud sliding down Big Rock Canyon.

Now the West Coast, particularly southern California, is preparing for effects of

a new El Nino that rivals the 1983 version in both size and intensity. The warm

Pacific Ocean current will change weather patterns across the country, and cause

droughts and flooding worldwide. "It may already have started," said Erin

O'Toole as she watched the waves from Hurricane Linda explode against her sea

wall last week.

It has. At the moment, Southern California is enjoying a glorious September.

The El Nino has broken up the usual inversion in the air that traps smog around

major cities, giving the region clear blue skies and record low levels of ozone.

But come winter, the ill winds of El Nino are predicted to blow severe rain

storms toward the West coast. "The concern is beginning to build," says Marc

Wolfson of the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Washington, D.C.

What makes this year's El Nino unusual is its size. Above-average water

temperatures have been recorded in an area of the Pacific Ocean that is 1.5 times

bigger than the continental USA. This El Nino is already the second-biggest of

the century -- and still growing.

El Nino is a warming of waters in the eastern Pacific that wrecks havoc with the

weather. It develops when brisk trade winds that blow west across the Pacific

suddenly die for unknown reasons. Without the cooling winds, the ocean's

surface water heats up, warming the air above it and creating a hot, moist

breeding ground for huge storms and hurricanes.

The warm currents are threatening dozens of species of marine life from Peru to

Alaska. And El Nino is spreading drought in Central America and Southeast Asia

-- areas that normally would get rain at this time of year.

Climatologists say there's no guarantee this El Nino will produce the same chaos

that caused from $5 billion to $13 billion in damage worldwide and claimed at

least 1,200 lives in 1983.

But like countless others in areas around the world that are most vulnerable to El

Nino, the O'Tooles and others in California are treating the winter ahead as a test

of survival.

"It's almost reached the level of panic," says Larry Snapp of the A-1 Roofing Co.

in Los Angeles, where business has doubled in recent weeks. "People who have

been procrastinating for years over roof repairs suddenly want it done right now."

In San Diego, a developer is racing to pour concrete for 180 home foundations in

nine different projects before the rains come. Investors have extended Steve

Doyle, president of Brookside Homes, three times the usual amount of cash so he

can triple the speed at which he pours concrete.

"Some experts say our rain could triple," he says. "I don't know if it's true, but

I'm preparing for the worst. If we get triple our average rain, this place will come

to a standstill."

Hillside homeowners are scrambling to forestall mud slides by shoring up their

lots with seed bags and ground cover. In Santa Barbara, Dennis Downing put in

"stuff with good root systems. Ivy, rosemary, things like that. Just in case."

Used as a scapegoat

A weather front generated by the breakup of Tropical Storm Ignacio, born in the

warm El Nino waters, dropped rain last month on California's wine country.

Grape production overall is up because of a long, hot season. But this rain, the

first August downpour in 29 years for some growers, cost the region 10% of its

Chardonnay and Sauvignon grapes.

Not every drop of rain can be attributed to El Nino. Some people here are

concerned about a rising public hysteria.

"Suddenly the media and the public are starting to blame everything on El Nino,"

says Tim Barnett at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, which

first forecast this El Nino. "The atmosphere has a lot of chaotic noise (that causes

storms). El Nino is just one factor."

Still, El Nino is a popular fall guy. Some blamed heavy rains in the Rockies this

summer on El Nino. Not true, say the experts. El Nino also has been cited in

some quarters for a record 216 consecutive rainless days in downtown Los

Angeles. Wrong again.

El Ninos are no aberration; they're a routine part of nature that occur every two

to 10 years. But the effect of this El Nino is being felt earlier. Generally, El

Ninos don't stir up things until December. Peruvian fishermen named the

phenomenon El Nino, "the Christ child," because it typically shows up around

Christmas.

Ocean life shifts

Changes off the California coast already are significant. Water temperatures that

normally range between 50 and 55 degrees have climbed to 65-plus, and many

fish -- like anchovies and salmon -- are migrating north in search of cooler water.

Warm-water species have replaced them. Mahi mahi have been spotted outside

San Francisco Bay, one thousand miles north of their usual range.

Last month, two fishermen off Westport, Wash., pulled in a 104-pound striped

marlin, a species that rarely strays north of San Diego. State fish and game

authorities say it's the first time anybody has caught one in Washington. `It was

like winning the Lotto," said Dick Miller, 69, one of the anglers.

The ocean is so warm that the Monterey Bay Aquarium on the central California

coast had to bring in new refrigeration units to chill the sea water piped through

its octopus tanks. Otherwise, the octopi would lose their enzyme systems and

die.

If the effects of El Nino are the same this year as in 1983, virtually the entire

USA will feel some effect.

For the North, it should mean generally milder, drier weather. In 1983, natural

gas consumption across the northern U.S. fell to 60% below average in some

areas.

In the South, forecasters predict wetter, cooler weather. But most states expect

nothing cataclysmic. In fact, the Gulf States are celebrating one of El Nino's

benefits -- a quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far.

Strong winds high in the jet stream have whipped east across the Atlantic and

dissolved the storms before they could fully develop.

"We may have a wetter winter," says Jo Moss, a spokesperson for the Texas

Division of Emergency Management. "But this state's greatest weather hazards

are hurricanes, and we're grateful for anything that keeps them away."

The federal emergency agency is focusing attention on the Western flood threat.

In an extraordinary move, it has scheduled a preparedness summit in Los

Angeles for Oct. 15.

It is running announcements that urge people to buy federal flood insurance now.

The insurance program covers water-related damage of almost every kind,

including mudslides.

Naturalists say the warm waters guarantee a disaster for a variety of animals.

The coast's rich ecosystem relies on a continuous cycle of cold water moving

from the ocean floor to the surface, and El Nino has stopped that. The result is a

precipitous drop in food supplies -- from animal plankton to krill to small fish

like sardines -- that are critical to many coastal species.

In 1983, only half of 12 leading bird species along the coast north of San

Francisco even attempted to reproduce. "There was no food. They were just too

stressed," says Bill Sydeman of the Point Reyes Bird Observatory. "We had

major die-offs. We expect the same drops in population next year and very poor

breeding, if any breeding, at all."

At Sea World in San Diego, which operates a program to save beached

mammals, the number of cases rose from an average of 100 a year to 475 in

1983.

For the most part, they were young sea lions and seals that washed up on the

beach "emaciated and dehydrated from lack of food, often with secondary

problems like pneumonia," program curator Tom Goff says.

Now Goff is preparing for another busy year. "We have an enormous supply of

food," he says. "We're ready."

Whatever ills El Nino promises, 17-year-old surfers Louis Tesoro and Scott

Coleman are exultant for the moment. Splashing through the waves off Malibu,

they've shed the wetsuits normally required of the Pacific's numbing waters.

"You can stay in all day. It's awesome," Tesoro says. Adds Coleman, "It only

happens every 20 years, so we may as well enjoy it."

Contributing: Jonathan T. Lovitt in Los Angeles and Jack Williams in

Washington, D.C.

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